(English) Onur Öymen, Talking Points on Foreign Policy – 31 October 2014

-Thank you for your kind invitation. My thanks go also to retired general Haldun Solmaztürk who facilitated this meeting.

-It is a particular pleasure and priviledge for me to be with you today.

-I’ll share with you some toughts about the recent developments in our Southern neiborhood and than I’ll try to answer your questions.

-Nowadays the attention of the World public is focused on Kobane. Partly because of the gravity of the situation and perhaps partly because of the vicinity of this town to Turkish border, from where TV crew of a number of countries can broadcast live what is happening.
It would be perhaps more appropriate to see the global picture. Kobane is important but not the most strategic aim of neither side. We need to assess all ISIS activities in Syria and Iraq with it’s final goal.

-Furthermore we need to adress terrorism problem in general, because ISIS that presents a serious potential securty risk in general is not the most imminent threat at this moment for some countries like Turkey.

The political future of the region is also a majör concern. Would it be possible to preserve stability and territorial integr,ity of the countries in the region even if Esad quits the government.
How many of the armed groups in Syria are fighting for democracy and human rights?
How many of them are prepared to leave the country after a govwernment change?

In the broader Picture there is a risk of Iran- Israel conflict with possible devastating effects fort he entire region and fort he World.

How the outcome of Kobane conflict may influence the overall stituation?

-Coming back to Kobane, unfortunately several hundreds of people have lost their lives so far in Kobane and despite massive airstrikes of American and coalition countries’ aircraft ISIS forces could not be forced to withdraw so far.

-At this stage we may try to draw some conclusions from the situation in Kobane and in areas occupied by ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

-Although air strikes helped to limit the offensive capabilities of ISIS, there is no major change in the size of areas controlled by ISIS. There are reports that ISIS has even enlarged the territories under its occupation in some areas of El Anbar province close to Baghdad airport.

-First of all it is generally admitted that with air power alone it would be very diffucult to overpower ISIS.

-There is no indication so far that the number of new ISIS volonteers has diminished.

-We need more accurate information on weather the financial resources of ISIS and their ability to replace their weapons and amunition destroyed by allied aircraft has diminished recently.

-The allegations that ISIS now posess some sofisticated weapons like manpad missiles to be used against civilian aircraft should be verified.

-We need to learn more about the financial and logistic support provided to ISIS and to other terrorist organizations in the area probably by some countries of the region. Unless we are able to dry financial and logistic support it would be even more difficult to coop with ISIS and terrorism in general in the Middle East.

-According to reliable reports, the situation of the citizens of Iraq and Syria, trapped in occupied cities by ISIS like Mussoul is unbearable. Those who manage to save their lives, especially the women are often treated as slaves or forced to live under strickt rules imposed by ISIS that are totally unacceptable by all standards.

Other sources give information about daily life of people trapped in areas in cities and towns controlled by ISIS against their will. In these areas there are very strict rules inspired by the most radical and fundamentalist interpretations of Islam. In schools they teach only their ideology. All social activities like music and sport classes are banned. Women should wear chodar or burka and they cannot leave alone their houses. Summery killings of their opponents are very common.

-More alarming is the support ISIS enjoys by the radical Sunnite elements in the region and elsewhere. It seems that some parts of the population of Iraq and Syria is accepting voluntaraly the way of life imposed by ISIS.

-We have a great concern that despite alarming news about the atrocities, thousands of radical people living in Europe, US and Turkey are also willing to join ISIS ranks.

-A recent study conducted by a Turkish research center, to be published soon, concludes that:

-ISIS has a considerable number of supporters and sympathizers in various countries including Turkey. Around 2000 Turkish citizens went to Syria to join Islamic Front components, al Nusra front and partly to ISIS. Among them the number of people Kurdish origin is quite high.

-A Kurdish organization Ansarül Islam supports actually ISIS.

A number of ISIS commanders are of Kurdish origin.

-The purpose of the smpathizers of ISIS is to impose Sharia law in the territories they are aiming to conquer.

-The political, historical, religious, regional and social elements should be studied carefully. Otherwise, using military means only may not lead us a successful result.

-ISIS considers as infidels all nations that are not observing their rules, including the Turks.

-Unfortunately during the Afgan resitance against Soviet Union the Western countries have indirectly supported organization like al Qaeda.

-Today a similar situation prevails in Syria. Some countires directly or indirectly armed some groups fighting against Assad Government.

-We should not forget that ISIS is an al Qaeda organization. They consider Usama bin Laden as their historical leader. Actually they do not formally affiliated to al Qaeda because do not consider themselves as an organization but as an Islamic State.

-They consider Shias and Alawites as their enemies.

-In the areas they control they provide all sorts of public and social services, municipal services, their schools, courts, ministers, police organization, jails, academies, intelligence services, and military units.

-The avarage age of participants is between 20 and 30.

-The number of women sympathizers joining ISIS is quite high and this women join ISIS ranks sometimes with their husband and children.

-Those are the finding of this research team.

-On the other hand, while deciding how best our contries could contribute to the fight against ISIS we should consider security risks to be undertaken by each country.

-Turkey’s position is particularly delicate due to our geographic proximity and our fight against another terrorist organization, PKK that has strong ties with PYD in Kobane.

Only two weeks ago, PYD sympatizers attacked civilans and security forces to protest the policy of the Turkish government on Kobane, killing 34 persons.In the last 4 days they killed another 4 soldiers walking in shoping districts in civilian clothes.

-From the political perspective, our efforts should not focus only on how to combat effectively ISIS but also to gain hearts and minds of the people in Syria and Iraq as well as of other countries in the region.

I think that the peoples of the Middle East should not be left with two options only: Either to live under authoritarian dictatorships or accept the rule of a brutal terror organization. I am of the opinion that the best offer to be presented to these peoples is democracy.

-Some scholars claim that democracy is a product of Christianity and doesn’t suit well Muslim societies.

As a matter of fact in Muslim societies democracy can not be established and survive without secularism.

The key element of Turkish democracy was in fact secularism. No other Muslim country so far, with the exception of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus has adopted a democratic system based on secularism.
After the end of the Cold War democracy spread in several areas of the World besides Central and Eastern Europe. Most of the Latin American countries have adopted democratic systems as well as a number of Far Eastern and some African countries. Practically the only exception was the Middle East.

-We need to reflect on this and try to understand the root causes of this failure.

-Now we have a glamour of hope. A secular party won Tunisian elections last Sunday. In case they succeed to shape their political system according the secular principles they defend they will not only help a smooth transition to democracy in their own country, but also set an example for other Arap nations who were so far not so successful in their attempts to establish a modern democratic, society.

Unfortunately it is a fact that some countries of the region tried to use terrorist activities to gain political and economic advatages. One of the concrete example is Syria. In 1990s President Hafez Assad tried to profit from PKK to seek concessions from Turkish Government on the waters of Euphrates. We also remember role of the Libyan Government on Lockerby terrorist attack.

Some regional factors made a soft transition to democracy more difficult than anywhere else in the world. A strong social and political movement led by Muslim Brotherhood in the late 1920s influenced large segments of the societies in the direction of radical Muslim governance rejecting all forms of democracy and reconciliation. Their aim was to use violence to impose their authority in Arab countries.

Muslim Brotherhood is considered as responsible of the assasination of Prime Minister of Egypt in 1949. They tried to kill Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1954. Thereafter the organization was banned in Egypt. But they continued their underground activities. Radical Muslim elements were also responsible of the murder of President Anwar Sadat.

Muslim Brootherhood underground activities in Syria in 1981 led a harsh repression from Hafız Esad that killed about 30 thousand people.

At a later stage Muslim Brotherhood chose to profit from the opportunities offered by the Egyptian election law to present independent candidates in elections for Egyptian parliament. They aimed to control the state from within.

This occasion came with the fall of Husnu Mubarak. General Tantavi who replaced him has lifted the ban on Muslim Brotherhood permitting them to participate in general elections. Their leader Mursi was elected as president and attempted to rule the country according to Sharia law rather than democratic principles.

It should not be surprising that terrorism has spread recently in Iraq and Syria in such an environment.

For a long time Turkey had urged NATO allies and other Western nations to adopt a comprehensive strategy for the eradication of all terrorist activities.

I must confess that we had not seen at that time a readiness to engage a concerted action to fight international terrorism.

The turning point was 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington. Until 9/11 I hardly remember any NATO Council meeting where the problem of terrorism was an agenda item.

But after 9/11 everthing has changed and terrorism became almost a permanent item of NATO Council meeting’s agenda.

President George Bush, addressing the countries of the world after 9/11, said that “In the fight against the terrorism either you are with us or against us. We don’t have grey areas.” We completely shared this call.

Again the President Bush in a statement in Knesset in 2008 said that “Some people suggest us to negotiate with terrorists. It is a foolish idea and we will never do it.”

We all agreed with that statement as well.

But after a while we noticed that a new concept has emerged. Different ways of combatting terrorism was suggested for different terrorist organizations.

President Obama in a speech in the Turkish parliament in 2009 said that

“Iraq, Turkey, and the United States face a common threat from terrorism. That includes the al Qaeda terrorists who have sought to drive Iraqis apart and to destroy their country. And that includes the PKK. There is no excuse for terror against any nation. As President, and as a NATO ally, I pledge that you will have our support against the terrorist activities of the PKK. These efforts will be strengthened by the continued work to build ties of cooperation between Turkey, the Iraqi government, and Iraq’s Kurdish leaders, and by your continued efforts to promote education and opportunity for Turkey’s Kurds.

We share the common goal of denying al Qaeda a safe-haven in Pakistan or Afghanistan. The world has come too far to let this region backslide, and to let al Qaeda terrorists plot further attacks. That is why we are committed to a more focused effort to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda.”

Later American governments suggested that Turkey should look for a political solution with PKK terrorist organization.

Turkish retired four-star general Edip Başer was assigned together with former NATO Commander General Joseph Rolston to study ways and means of combatting PKK terörist organization.

In a book he published a short while ago he said precisely that Americans differentiate among terrorist organizations and PKK for Americans is in the fourth category that is to say among the least dangerous terrorist organizations.

When Turkey started a land operation to attack PKK headquarters in Northern Iraq American Defence Secretary Robert Gates publicly stated that “Turkey should immediately stop this operation and withdraw her troops from Northern Iraq.”

Already 1994, our NATO ally Germany imposed an armed ambargo against Turkey on the grounds that Turkey used some armed personel carriers delivered by Germany in her fight against PKK terrorists in South Eastern Turkey claiming that Turkey should use such weapons only for NATO purposes.

Today assessing Turkey’s policies vis a vis recent terrorist attacks of ISIS one should bear in mind all these experiences we lived in last couple of decades.

The experience of Turkey in the last 90 years may be a source of inspiration for the peoples of the Middle East. How Turkey was able to build a democratic society in the neighbourhood of non-democratic countries? The key word is secularism.

Right after the proclamation of Turkish Republic, Turkey while respecting religious beliefs of the people and right to practice their religion, has ended caliphate and closed religious institutions that have political activities. In 1937, Turkey introduced secularism in the constitution as one of the basic pillars of the state system.
To conclude, I would say that we have to profit of each others experience while shaping together a common strategy to combat effectively terrorism in the Middle East and help the nations of the Middle East to develop democratic societies.

We did this job successfully in Eastern and Central Europe during the Cold War period. Why we should not try it now in the Middle East.