Onur Öymen, Turkey-EU Relations, Problems and Prospects, Brussels, 22 June 2011
Dear chairperson,
Dear guests,
I would like to thank you for your kind invitation.
I will try to highlight some main problems that Europe and Turkey are facing today and may face in the near future respectively, then I’ll try to express my views on whether these problems should play a positive or negative role in the membership process of Turkey to EU.
Let’s start with the problems that Europe is facing.
One of the basic problems is the the decline of international competitiveness. Compared to other groups of nations, Europe is losing gradually its competitiveness in the world and its share in the world economy. BRIC
countries are making a tremendous progress in the field of gross national product and some of them have already in a better position than the leading countries of western democracies. A few years ago UNICE, who is called now “European Business”, an institution who represents the views of European private sector, had made a remarkable comparative study between European Union, US and Japan. The results show that in a number of areas particularly related to high technology, technology based production utilization of Internet and in a number of similar areas Europe is lagging behind US and Japan.
Let me cite a few figures:
- In the field of standard of living, if US has 100 points, Japan has 90 and EU 70.
- In the EU the cost of energy 47% , road transportation is 40%, internet connection 200%, international telephone call are 300% more expensive than the US.
- The ratio of R&D expenditures in the GNP is lower in Europe than in the US and Japan.
- The number of computers per person is two times higher in the US than in EU.
- Public expenditures in a number of EU countries are about the half of GDP whereas this figure is about 1/3 in the US and Japan,
- Taxes and social security premiums are much higher in the EU than in Japan.
- The proportion of taxes and social security contributions in the salaries of EU citizens is about 57%, whereas in the US this figure is 37% and in Japan 33%.
- The share of employment in the public sector is 18% in Europe 8,3% in Japan and 15,7% in Japan.
At that time UNİCE was saying that these figures show that even for the big companies of Europe it was becoming more and more difficult to compete with those of the US and Japan. In the meantime there was some improvements in the European standards in these areas. Still EU is not ahead of these two countries in most of the areas.
Let me remind you that the economic growth in 1980-2008 period reached 2.2% in the European Union, 2.3% Japan, 2.9% in the United States. It reached to 6.3% in newly industrialised economies.
Recent prospective studies show a remarkable progress in China and India. Obviously the centre of gravity of the world economy is shifting from the West towards the East. If you add to that list countries like Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, you will notice that an economic power centre is growing in that part of the world.
In the field of defence and security, despite some promising initiatives and expectations European Union’s defence organisation is far from reaching a level to be compared with the American military power. In the areas of military expenses overall nuclear and conventional capabilities, defence related investments and research America is well ahead of all European countries combined. European countries profiting from peace dividend that they realized after the end of the Cold War are reluctant to increase the share of military expenditures in their Gross National Product. Therefore in the foreseeable future nobody expects EU to replace NATO and to compete Americans in the defence related international problems.
In the social area, the burden on the shoulders of the active population of Europe is growing and the governments have an increasingly difficult problem of coping with the necessities of social requirements. In some countries like Germany, the State had to reduce a few years ago its contributions to the social security system. Consequently the financial contributions of individual citizens have increased. The unemployment rate in Europe as of last October reached 10.1% and this figure is the highest level since July 1998. According to Eurostat, the number of European citizens who do not have jobs rose by 80,000 to 15.95 million people. On the other hand, to keep up the actual balance between the workers and retirees Europe needs a large number of migrant workers to maintain the social balance of today.
Europe has also financial problems. The recent economic crisis in Greece has reached alarming dimensions. Leading European personalities like Prime Minister Junkers, referring to the financial crisis in Greece talk about the risks of a fire ball. 10 EU countries are still outside the Eurozone.
The excessive financial contributions required from rich EU countries or banks to compensate the deficit of the ailing European economies create serious financial problems elsewhere. This situation leads to some ideas on possible review of the existing financial system in Europe. Some leaders like Ms Merkel even questioned whether Europe should reconsider some provisions of the Lisbon Treaty.
In the area of foreign policy although some steps have been taken in the Lisbon Summit in the direction of a better institutional framework for the harmonization of foreign policies, it is still too early to speak about a unified European position on various international problems and crises.
This is not a promising prospective picture for Europe. Of course one should not underestimate the achievements of the Union and concrete benefits provided to European citizens. Obviously EU would remain as an irreversible project and will lead the preservation of human rights and encourage democratic aspirations of the peoples of the world. The sense of solidarity and mutual dependence will continue to shape the future of European countries. Despite a re4lative decline compared to other economic power centres, Europe will continue to be one of the most important economic forces of the world. That is why a number of European nations, including Turkey are still aspiring to join the EU.
This much about Europe.
Lets see now the prospects and problems of Turkey. Turkey has made tremendous progress in the fields of economy, education, technology, industry and defence. But a number of serious problems persist. At the top of that come some shortcomings in the field of democracy. I must confess that in general our democratic standards today are not at the level we deserve and even worsened in some areas like freedom of press and gender equality in the last decade.
Actual performance of Turkey in this regard is behind the levels she had a decade ago. If you look at the findings of reliable International Organizations and reliable think tanks, you will notice that the rank of Turkey is below a great number of Western democracies. There is a vivid discussion in Turkey on the need for further democratization and for the preparation of a brand-new constitution. There are 57 journalists in jail together with professors, party leaders, officers, majors, lawyers, intellectuals. All are waiting the end of their trials started 4 years ago.
Although the ruling party won a clear majority in the elections of 12 June collecting about half of the votes, many people in Turkey questioned the election system practiced in the country because we still have a 10 per cent threshold.
In the field of economy Turkey has recovered to a large extent the setbacks of the international crisis and has realized continues increase in gross national product in last six quarters. The rate of growth is among the highest of the G-20 countries. Still we continue to suffer from a high level of unemployment which is still above ten per cent. There are some reports of international media about an overheating of the Turkish economy. In the social field we have the serious problem of bad income distribution among peoples and among regions. There is also a big difference in the life expectancy among different parts of the country. The size of unregistered economy is another problem.
We continue to face terrorist attacks from a terrorist organization based in Northern Iraq.
Turkish people support Arab spring and those who are fighting for freedom and democracy. But obviously the uprising and confrontations in our area create security risks for Turkey.
We have unsolved problems with our neighbours like the Cyprus problem and Armenian Issue. Furthermore we have increased concerns about the security situation in the Caucasus particularly after the suspension CFE Treaty.
Our membership negotiations with EU are stagnating. We have started the negotiating process with the EU six years ago on the same day with Croatia. She has practically finished her negotiations and expecting to join EU family, in 2013. Turkey was able to open so far only 13 chapters out of 35. We were not able to open a single one during the last two presidencies. EU Council and some individual members have blocked 18 chapters. One country, France has blocked alone 5 chapters claiming that these chapters may lead Turkey to full membership.
In short Turkey had a lot of achievements, progress, she has a very big potential but she also faces serious problems.
The question is whether Turkish membership to the EU, would facilitate the solution of European and Turkish problems, or it will make these solutions more difficult. Actual president of EU the Prime Minister Olmert of Hungary has said during the COSAC meeting held in Budapest, at the end of May, that the only way to regain to competitiveness for Europe is to continue the enlargement of the Union. There I asked whether there is no contradiction between saying this and preventing the membership of Turkey that will definitely contribute to the competitiveness of Europe more than other candidates thanks to her large economic power and potential.
Young dynamic and well-educated work force of Turkey may also positively contribute to the solution of some social problems in Europe, like aging.
Furthermore Turkey’s military power will certainly contribute to the building of a robust European army.
In foreign policy Turkey’s special relations with the countries of the Middle East, Caucasus, Balkans and Central Asia may add new dimensions to the European foreign policy.
Turkey is becoming an energy hub, between oil and gas producing countries of the region and Europe where the need for energy is constantly growing.
Having said all these I believe that you will share my conclusion that Turkish membership will bring more good than harm to Europe. If we think jointly on what we can do together, we will have a different picture and a positive perspective for our common future.
Obviously each particular problem like Cyprus Issue and Armenian question requires special attention. Definitely we all have to spent more time and energy for the solution of these problems. But if we turn a blind eye to the bigger picture and overlook our mutual benefits and if we make the prospects of membership hostage to such and similar individual problems, I am afraid that we all will be the losers. If the EU membership is used as leverage against Turkey to get unilateral concessions on some issues, I suspect that the results to be obtained would not be much different from what had been achieved so far because no Turkish government would be ready to make unilateral concessions. But if some countries aim to block Turkish membership for other reasons and if they use these individual problems as an excuse to delay the membership process of Turkey, there will be no winner in this political game either.
My understanding is that there are two main problems that worry some of European friends: First, Turkey will join Europe as a major country affecting the balance of power between big countries. Because of the fact that voting rights in the European Council is determined according to the population of member countries, Turkey will rank right after Germany who’s share is 9,55%. T That is to say Turkey’s share will be around 9 % of total votes, whereas France has 8,11%, UK 8%, Italy 7,95%, Greece 3,49% and Cyprus, 0,98%. In the European Parliament with increased powers Turkish delegation will be second in size right after Germany.
The second point is that EU has to provide a substantial economic contribution to Turkey. According to a report prepared a few years ago, yearly net contribution of EU to Turkey would be around 11 billion Euros. 8,5 billion of that amount would go to agriculture. Where is that money? Since the common understanding is not to allow major budget increase of the Union, you would need to cut the benefits of some member countries to provide Turkey this contribution. I believe that those are the real issues and we should have the courage to speak frankly about that.
But I should tell you that to keep Turkey for a long time at the doorsteps of Europe might also have an important economic and political price to pay.
Therefore the member countries should take a serious and well thought decision bearing in mind their long term interests. My opinion is that if the forefathers of Europe were alive they would probably decide to accelerate Turkish membership process.
The history is full of missed opportunities. I hope that the future historians will not refer to the Turkish membership process as another missed opportunity. And I hope that our European friends will not ask themselves who lost Turkey.
Thank you.
Answers to questions
I have not said that Cyprus problem and other problems are non- issues. But I said that main issues are elsewhere. Some people believe that Cyprus issue or some other issues are just the heart of the problem and once they are solved everything will be solved. This is the impression that people try to spread in Europe and in Turkey, in the Turkish medias, newspapers etc. It is not true. As I told you, it doesn’t mean that we should minimize Cyprus problem. We have to solve it. But I said that in all problems there are two sides. You cannot expect only Turkey to solve the Cyprus problem. What is wrong In the EU’s approach? EU asks Turkey to solve the Cyprus problem by making unilateral concessions. What about Cyprus? Should Cyprus do nothing? What the EU asks from Cyprus? Practically nothing. Therefore, as I explained you a moment ago, according an informal rule applied in the EU, called “Luxembourg Rule”, EU cannot support a non-member country against a member country no matter how she is right. And EU cannot force a member country to make unilateral concessions against a non-member country. Therefore EU cannot be impartial in the solution of the Cyprus problem. Anyway Cyprus problem should be solved by the two sides of the Island. For that matter you need a realistic approach and mutual and balanced concessions from both sides. In the beginning we have started to work with the intention to solve the Cyprus problem with a spirit of compromise. On the contrary, the Greek side of Cyprus started with the concept of “long term struggle”. Not conciliation but long term struggle. This was the motto of Archbishop Makarios. It means that he suggested a struggle with the Turks and wins the game at the end. if you choose struggle instead of compromise and reconciliation the result you may obtain would be exactly what you have obtained so far. That is to say nothing. I must tell you that the latest example of this is the Kofi Annan Plan. Although that plan had a lot of inconvenient fort the Turkish side it was accepted by the great majority of the Turkish Cypriots, but rejected by the great Greek majority of the Greek Cypriots. Do you still believe that Turkish Cypriots are not willing to solve the problem? If you had accepted Kofi Annan Plan there would be no Cyprus problem today. We would be discussing here other issues. In the light of this can you accuse Turkey for not willing to solve the Cyprus problem?
Despite the fact that they refused the Kofi Annan Plan, the Greek Cypriots have been rewarded by being accepting as a full member to the EU, Turkish Cypriots who had accepted the Kofi Annan were penalized. EU and the rest of the international community continued to implement embargoes against the Turkish Cypriots. Such severe embargoes do not exist elsewhere in the world even not against North Korea. Do you know that besides economic, trade and transport embargoes, there are also sport embargoes? You cannot send from Belgium, even from Turkey a team to play a game in Northern Cyprus. It is prohibited. Is there such a prohibition against North Korea? No. You see, even such excessive restrictions of the international community have not helped to solve the Cyprus Problem. If you really want to solve it you need a spirit of reconciliation.
(English) Turkey-EU Relations, Problems and Prospects-23 June 2011
Onur Öymen, Turkey-EU Relations, Problems and Prospects, Brussels, 22 June 2011
Dear chairperson,
Dear guests,
I would like to thank you for your kind invitation.
I will try to highlight some main problems that Europe and Turkey are facing today and may face in the near future respectively, then I’ll try to express my views on whether these problems should play a positive or negative role in the membership process of Turkey to EU.
Let’s start with the problems that Europe is facing.
One of the basic problems is the the decline of international competitiveness. Compared to other groups of nations, Europe is losing gradually its competitiveness in the world and its share in the world economy. BRIC
countries are making a tremendous progress in the field of gross national product and some of them have already in a better position than the leading countries of western democracies. A few years ago UNICE, who is called now “European Business”, an institution who represents the views of European private sector, had made a remarkable comparative study between European Union, US and Japan. The results show that in a number of areas particularly related to high technology, technology based production utilization of Internet and in a number of similar areas Europe is lagging behind US and Japan.
Let me cite a few figures:
At that time UNİCE was saying that these figures show that even for the big companies of Europe it was becoming more and more difficult to compete with those of the US and Japan. In the meantime there was some improvements in the European standards in these areas. Still EU is not ahead of these two countries in most of the areas.
Let me remind you that the economic growth in 1980-2008 period reached 2.2% in the European Union, 2.3% Japan, 2.9% in the United States. It reached to 6.3% in newly industrialised economies.
Recent prospective studies show a remarkable progress in China and India. Obviously the centre of gravity of the world economy is shifting from the West towards the East. If you add to that list countries like Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, you will notice that an economic power centre is growing in that part of the world.
In the field of defence and security, despite some promising initiatives and expectations European Union’s defence organisation is far from reaching a level to be compared with the American military power. In the areas of military expenses overall nuclear and conventional capabilities, defence related investments and research America is well ahead of all European countries combined. European countries profiting from peace dividend that they realized after the end of the Cold War are reluctant to increase the share of military expenditures in their Gross National Product. Therefore in the foreseeable future nobody expects EU to replace NATO and to compete Americans in the defence related international problems.
In the social area, the burden on the shoulders of the active population of Europe is growing and the governments have an increasingly difficult problem of coping with the necessities of social requirements. In some countries like Germany, the State had to reduce a few years ago its contributions to the social security system. Consequently the financial contributions of individual citizens have increased. The unemployment rate in Europe as of last October reached 10.1% and this figure is the highest level since July 1998. According to Eurostat, the number of European citizens who do not have jobs rose by 80,000 to 15.95 million people. On the other hand, to keep up the actual balance between the workers and retirees Europe needs a large number of migrant workers to maintain the social balance of today.
Europe has also financial problems. The recent economic crisis in Greece has reached alarming dimensions. Leading European personalities like Prime Minister Junkers, referring to the financial crisis in Greece talk about the risks of a fire ball. 10 EU countries are still outside the Eurozone.
The excessive financial contributions required from rich EU countries or banks to compensate the deficit of the ailing European economies create serious financial problems elsewhere. This situation leads to some ideas on possible review of the existing financial system in Europe. Some leaders like Ms Merkel even questioned whether Europe should reconsider some provisions of the Lisbon Treaty.
In the area of foreign policy although some steps have been taken in the Lisbon Summit in the direction of a better institutional framework for the harmonization of foreign policies, it is still too early to speak about a unified European position on various international problems and crises.
This is not a promising prospective picture for Europe. Of course one should not underestimate the achievements of the Union and concrete benefits provided to European citizens. Obviously EU would remain as an irreversible project and will lead the preservation of human rights and encourage democratic aspirations of the peoples of the world. The sense of solidarity and mutual dependence will continue to shape the future of European countries. Despite a re4lative decline compared to other economic power centres, Europe will continue to be one of the most important economic forces of the world. That is why a number of European nations, including Turkey are still aspiring to join the EU.
This much about Europe.
Lets see now the prospects and problems of Turkey. Turkey has made tremendous progress in the fields of economy, education, technology, industry and defence. But a number of serious problems persist. At the top of that come some shortcomings in the field of democracy. I must confess that in general our democratic standards today are not at the level we deserve and even worsened in some areas like freedom of press and gender equality in the last decade.
Actual performance of Turkey in this regard is behind the levels she had a decade ago. If you look at the findings of reliable International Organizations and reliable think tanks, you will notice that the rank of Turkey is below a great number of Western democracies. There is a vivid discussion in Turkey on the need for further democratization and for the preparation of a brand-new constitution. There are 57 journalists in jail together with professors, party leaders, officers, majors, lawyers, intellectuals. All are waiting the end of their trials started 4 years ago.
Although the ruling party won a clear majority in the elections of 12 June collecting about half of the votes, many people in Turkey questioned the election system practiced in the country because we still have a 10 per cent threshold.
In the field of economy Turkey has recovered to a large extent the setbacks of the international crisis and has realized continues increase in gross national product in last six quarters. The rate of growth is among the highest of the G-20 countries. Still we continue to suffer from a high level of unemployment which is still above ten per cent. There are some reports of international media about an overheating of the Turkish economy. In the social field we have the serious problem of bad income distribution among peoples and among regions. There is also a big difference in the life expectancy among different parts of the country. The size of unregistered economy is another problem.
We continue to face terrorist attacks from a terrorist organization based in Northern Iraq.
Turkish people support Arab spring and those who are fighting for freedom and democracy. But obviously the uprising and confrontations in our area create security risks for Turkey.
We have unsolved problems with our neighbours like the Cyprus problem and Armenian Issue. Furthermore we have increased concerns about the security situation in the Caucasus particularly after the suspension CFE Treaty.
Our membership negotiations with EU are stagnating. We have started the negotiating process with the EU six years ago on the same day with Croatia. She has practically finished her negotiations and expecting to join EU family, in 2013. Turkey was able to open so far only 13 chapters out of 35. We were not able to open a single one during the last two presidencies. EU Council and some individual members have blocked 18 chapters. One country, France has blocked alone 5 chapters claiming that these chapters may lead Turkey to full membership.
In short Turkey had a lot of achievements, progress, she has a very big potential but she also faces serious problems.
The question is whether Turkish membership to the EU, would facilitate the solution of European and Turkish problems, or it will make these solutions more difficult. Actual president of EU the Prime Minister Olmert of Hungary has said during the COSAC meeting held in Budapest, at the end of May, that the only way to regain to competitiveness for Europe is to continue the enlargement of the Union. There I asked whether there is no contradiction between saying this and preventing the membership of Turkey that will definitely contribute to the competitiveness of Europe more than other candidates thanks to her large economic power and potential.
Young dynamic and well-educated work force of Turkey may also positively contribute to the solution of some social problems in Europe, like aging.
Furthermore Turkey’s military power will certainly contribute to the building of a robust European army.
In foreign policy Turkey’s special relations with the countries of the Middle East, Caucasus, Balkans and Central Asia may add new dimensions to the European foreign policy.
Turkey is becoming an energy hub, between oil and gas producing countries of the region and Europe where the need for energy is constantly growing.
Having said all these I believe that you will share my conclusion that Turkish membership will bring more good than harm to Europe. If we think jointly on what we can do together, we will have a different picture and a positive perspective for our common future.
Obviously each particular problem like Cyprus Issue and Armenian question requires special attention. Definitely we all have to spent more time and energy for the solution of these problems. But if we turn a blind eye to the bigger picture and overlook our mutual benefits and if we make the prospects of membership hostage to such and similar individual problems, I am afraid that we all will be the losers. If the EU membership is used as leverage against Turkey to get unilateral concessions on some issues, I suspect that the results to be obtained would not be much different from what had been achieved so far because no Turkish government would be ready to make unilateral concessions. But if some countries aim to block Turkish membership for other reasons and if they use these individual problems as an excuse to delay the membership process of Turkey, there will be no winner in this political game either.
My understanding is that there are two main problems that worry some of European friends: First, Turkey will join Europe as a major country affecting the balance of power between big countries. Because of the fact that voting rights in the European Council is determined according to the population of member countries, Turkey will rank right after Germany who’s share is 9,55%. T That is to say Turkey’s share will be around 9 % of total votes, whereas France has 8,11%, UK 8%, Italy 7,95%, Greece 3,49% and Cyprus, 0,98%. In the European Parliament with increased powers Turkish delegation will be second in size right after Germany.
The second point is that EU has to provide a substantial economic contribution to Turkey. According to a report prepared a few years ago, yearly net contribution of EU to Turkey would be around 11 billion Euros. 8,5 billion of that amount would go to agriculture. Where is that money? Since the common understanding is not to allow major budget increase of the Union, you would need to cut the benefits of some member countries to provide Turkey this contribution. I believe that those are the real issues and we should have the courage to speak frankly about that.
But I should tell you that to keep Turkey for a long time at the doorsteps of Europe might also have an important economic and political price to pay.
Therefore the member countries should take a serious and well thought decision bearing in mind their long term interests. My opinion is that if the forefathers of Europe were alive they would probably decide to accelerate Turkish membership process.
The history is full of missed opportunities. I hope that the future historians will not refer to the Turkish membership process as another missed opportunity. And I hope that our European friends will not ask themselves who lost Turkey.
Thank you.
Answers to questions
I have not said that Cyprus problem and other problems are non- issues. But I said that main issues are elsewhere. Some people believe that Cyprus issue or some other issues are just the heart of the problem and once they are solved everything will be solved. This is the impression that people try to spread in Europe and in Turkey, in the Turkish medias, newspapers etc. It is not true. As I told you, it doesn’t mean that we should minimize Cyprus problem. We have to solve it. But I said that in all problems there are two sides. You cannot expect only Turkey to solve the Cyprus problem. What is wrong In the EU’s approach? EU asks Turkey to solve the Cyprus problem by making unilateral concessions. What about Cyprus? Should Cyprus do nothing? What the EU asks from Cyprus? Practically nothing. Therefore, as I explained you a moment ago, according an informal rule applied in the EU, called “Luxembourg Rule”, EU cannot support a non-member country against a member country no matter how she is right. And EU cannot force a member country to make unilateral concessions against a non-member country. Therefore EU cannot be impartial in the solution of the Cyprus problem. Anyway Cyprus problem should be solved by the two sides of the Island. For that matter you need a realistic approach and mutual and balanced concessions from both sides. In the beginning we have started to work with the intention to solve the Cyprus problem with a spirit of compromise. On the contrary, the Greek side of Cyprus started with the concept of “long term struggle”. Not conciliation but long term struggle. This was the motto of Archbishop Makarios. It means that he suggested a struggle with the Turks and wins the game at the end. if you choose struggle instead of compromise and reconciliation the result you may obtain would be exactly what you have obtained so far. That is to say nothing. I must tell you that the latest example of this is the Kofi Annan Plan. Although that plan had a lot of inconvenient fort the Turkish side it was accepted by the great majority of the Turkish Cypriots, but rejected by the great Greek majority of the Greek Cypriots. Do you still believe that Turkish Cypriots are not willing to solve the problem? If you had accepted Kofi Annan Plan there would be no Cyprus problem today. We would be discussing here other issues. In the light of this can you accuse Turkey for not willing to solve the Cyprus problem?
Despite the fact that they refused the Kofi Annan Plan, the Greek Cypriots have been rewarded by being accepting as a full member to the EU, Turkish Cypriots who had accepted the Kofi Annan were penalized. EU and the rest of the international community continued to implement embargoes against the Turkish Cypriots. Such severe embargoes do not exist elsewhere in the world even not against North Korea. Do you know that besides economic, trade and transport embargoes, there are also sport embargoes? You cannot send from Belgium, even from Turkey a team to play a game in Northern Cyprus. It is prohibited. Is there such a prohibition against North Korea? No. You see, even such excessive restrictions of the international community have not helped to solve the Cyprus Problem. If you really want to solve it you need a spirit of reconciliation.
Bu belge Konferanslar, Konuşmalar arşivinde bulunmaktadır.